of the biggest problems with the Affordable Care Act is the law that employers drive to stop sponsoring health insurance for their employees, rather than dumping these workers to the new law, the subsidized insurance exchanges. The Congressional Budget Office, in a provocative new report, believes that such behavior could, in some cases actually, reducing the deficit.
The ACA exchange grants will lead to dumping employer
A number of accredited budget wonks, especially Gene Steuerle (a former Finance Ministry official), Jim Capretta (a former health care specialist at the White House Office of Management and Budget) and Doug Holtz-Eakin (a former director of the CBO) have pointed out that the ACA strongly motivates employers to drop coverage for their lower-to-middle-income workers, because workers get a better deal by seeking cover on the new law of the exchanges. "Crowds of people, probably tens of millions of potential shift from employer-provided insurance in the next decade or two," Steuerle wrote in a widely quoted report.
Indeed, the new CBO report agree that the stock a better deal for the vast majority of people who qualify for subsidies to the exchange offer. According to the CBO's estimates, would someone making $ 50,000 per year (200 percent of the federal poverty level) benefit $ 11,300 per year to continue the exchange, someone making $ 74,000 (300%) per year benefit would come through the $ 3,000, and someone making the maximum $ 99,000 per year (399%) would only lose $ 700: a rounding error.
It is these figures that the findings drove the now famous McKinsey study found that 50 percent of employers with a "high awareness of the reform" would "definitely or probably" stop offering employer-sponsored insurance in the years after 2014. The McKinsey report detailed a number of creative strategies that companies can use to take advantage of subsidies, such as increasing the use of part-time employees, and splitting a company into two parts: one that provided coverage for higher incomes employees, and that low-income workers dumped on the markets.
The fiscal risk of the employer dumping
The big worry is that the employer dumping could explode the deficit. "The CBO projects that the premium assistance program will cost approximately $ 450 billion 2014-2019," Holtz-Eakin and Capretta wrote in 2010. "But those costs could reach $ 1.4 trillion if the workers and their families between 133 percent and 250 percent of the poverty line were to migrate from their existing plans and the exchange on day one."
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